{"id":427,"date":"2008-04-22T11:04:00","date_gmt":"2008-04-22T15:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/?p=427"},"modified":"2009-01-14T22:18:45","modified_gmt":"2009-01-15T02:18:45","slug":"nothing-is-sewn-up-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/?p=427","title":{"rendered":"Nothing is Sewn Up Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By the grace of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, tonight we               may know who will face off against John McCain this fall. Many were               saying that by tonight we may know who our next President will be,               but even though Big Media long ago declared Obama the King of the               Universe, our Great Pretender has been caught saying the same stupid               condescending things about rural whites that the educated white               elite used to say about urban blacks. Hilary&apos;s gotten herself caught               in a few gaffes herself, but she&apos;s not the na\u00eff that Obama is and               has kept herself closer to the center. It&apos;s still a tossup between               them. Tonight may nail it, but it may not.<\/p>\n<p>I don&apos;t do politics here very often, so I&apos;ll offer a few notes               on the race so far and be done for another month or two: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> There are clearly no such things as &#8220;private remarks&#8221; or &#8220;this                 is off the record&#8221; anymore. We&apos;ve taught our young people for                 years that politics has no rules, that outright hatred of whole                 groups for political reasons is completely acceptable under the                 banner of the First Amendment and &#8220;political speech,&#8221;                 and that it doesn&apos;t matter how you do it as long as you win. Those                 striving for elected office these days have to be <i>very<\/i>                 careful what they say and where they say it, because the blogosphere                 is full of people who will gleefully publish it and by doing so                 make it eternal. The Internet never forgets. Better to just shut                 up and quietly stand on your record, if you have one. <\/li>\n<li> Something I&apos;ve noticed in talking with political independents                 for many years is that independents don&apos;t believe campaign promises.                 They understand completely that lying is legal, and that the only                 way to judge a candidate is to look at his or her record in detail                 (including\u2014or especially\u2014where their money is coming                 from) and then extrapolate linearly into the future. When you                 give stirring campaign speeches full of promises, <i>you are reassuring                 your base<\/i>, not persuading the center to move in your direction.                 Independents call BS on anything candidates say since they first                 declared themselves.<\/li>\n<li> There is a difference between what people say to friends (and                 to pollsters) and what they do in the privacy of the voting booth.                 It&apos;s something like caucusing in the months leading up to the                 election: People will say the things that they think they are                 expected to say (like &#8220;I&apos;m voting for Obama!&#8221;) to avoid unpleasantness                 and conflict within their inner circles. This is a survival tactic                 if you live among political tribalists from either side of the                 spectrum. On election day, the magic of the secret ballot makes                 it possible for &#8220;survival centrists&#8221; to vote their true hearts,                 knowing that no one will catch them out in any lies made earlier                 to keep their scalps intact. <\/li>\n<li> The American electorate is still very closely divided, and                 it doesn&apos;t take a lot of votes to tip an election. <i>Nobody has                 anything sewn up.<\/i> <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Some final speculation pertinent to this last point: Many across               the political spectrum have already written off John McCain, but               that&apos;s a mistake. McCain is not seen as a &#8220;real&#8221; Republican in some               quarters on the right, but Republicans are better nose-holders than               Democrats, and come November McCain will get their votes irrespective               of the Democratic nominee. McCain has cleverly kept his VP spot               open (and generally kept a low profile) and probably will until               he is absolutely sure what he&apos;s up against. Having played the race               and gender cards intensely for a couple of years now, the Democrats               have legitimized this kind of tokenism in the public eye. McCain               could easily win against Obama by partnering with either a black               or a Hispanic. He could win against Hilary by partnering with a               woman of any color. In either case, <i>it doesn&apos;t matter who<\/i>.               It&apos;s sad that it&apos;s come to this, but that&apos;s how American politics               is now played, and both political parties had better be ready to               reap the whirlwind in unexpected ways.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By the grace of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, tonight we may know who will face off against John McCain this fall. Many were saying that by tonight we may know who our next President will be, but even though Big Media long ago declared Obama the King of the Universe, our Great Pretender has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[35],"class_list":["post-427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideasandanalysis","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=427"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":439,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427\/revisions\/439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}