{"id":382,"date":"2008-05-06T16:58:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-06T20:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/?p=382"},"modified":"2009-01-14T22:25:41","modified_gmt":"2009-01-15T02:25:41","slug":"josef-fritzl-evil-and-dumb-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/?p=382","title":{"rendered":"Josef Fritzl, Evil, and Dumb Luck"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Most of you have probably heard by now of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/news\/world\/2008-05-05-austria-incest_N.htm\">Josef               Fritzl, an Austrian psychopath<\/a> who created a custom dungeon               under his home, kept his daughter a prisoner there for 24 years,               and sired seven children by her. I haven&apos;t been this disturbed by               a crime since the boggling case of John Wayne Gacy, right here in               NW metro Chicago, who tortured, murdered and then buried 33 young               men under his house back in the 1970s.<\/p>\n<p>Like it or not, crimes like this prompt one to ask an ugly question:               If evil like this is possible, why are we still here? Why are we               not already extinct? (Those who have studied the history of the               20th Century might say it was a very near thing.) I have a theory,               though I admit it&apos;s a little thin to hang the future of humanity               on: <i>It&apos;s difficult to be brilliant and evil at the same time<\/i>.               Evil as we define it generally comes with limitations, primarily               the limitation of not being able to see yourself and your own situation               very clearly.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/phinnweb.blogspot.com\/2004\/10\/right-man-and-fear-of-losing-face.html\">Right               Men<\/a> (as described by A. E. Van Vogt and Colin Wilson) are the               best example: They just cannot conceive of the possibility that               they are wrong. A huge number of Right Men thus never get very far               in life. We see through them easily, recognize them as egomaniacal               psychopaths, and do our best to avoid them. They have a bad habit               of getting injured or killed in conflicts with others. Even when               they somehow succeed in society to a degree, they are almost invariably               humbled at some point, which is unbearable to them and often causes               them to die young. <\/p>\n<p>This is a good thing for us, as truly brilliant evil is <i>extremely<\/i>               dangerous. What most &#8220;ordinary&#8221; evil people (like Fritzl) have that               isn&apos;t often remarked upon is simple, dumb, statistical <i>luck<\/i>.               Most criminals get caught eventually, and the worse their crimes               are, the more likely they are to get caught. Some vanishingly rare               few end up skating past justice for years and years (like Fritzl),               and we only see a couple per century who are so lucky that they               end up in command of armies. (Think Hitler, Mao, and Stalin.) <\/p>\n<p>There are a lot of Fritzls out there. Most try evil things and               get caught very quickly; you see them on the news all the time with               their coats over their heads. Some get by for awhile, through a               combination of luck and unusual intelligence. Only a handful are               lucky enough to get away with the sort of depravity that John Wayne               Gacy or Josef Fritzl got away with. Choosing an easily concealable               form of evil is part of that luck, and sometimes there is a lot               of cunning hard work involved. (Like creating a custom dungeon with               flush toilets in the basement, or burying 33 bodies under your house               without stinking up the neighborhood. I still don&apos;t entirely understand               how Gacy managed that.) <\/p>\n<p>As for where individual evil itself comes from, I think (against               all political correctness) that it&apos;s primarily genetic. We&apos;re born               along a bell curve, with Mother Teresa on one end and Stalin on               the other. The optimist in me would like to think that the curve               is biased toward the good. But whether or not we&apos;re evenly distributed               across that bell curve, <i>good and evil as success strategies are               not symmetrical<\/i>. Good is outward-looking, cooperates with others,               and is generally supported by society as a whole. Evil handicaps               itself in various ways. (Read Colin Wilson&apos;s <i>A Criminal History               of Mankind<\/i> for hundreds of pages of examples.) Evil overestimates               its chances, isolates itself, picks fights, and operates within               a seriously distorted view of reality. This is fortunate, otherwise               we&apos;d long be extinct. But every now and then an evil individual               gets catastrophically lucky, and we witness crimes that make us               gasp. Given the huge number of moving parts in our seriously overstuffed               world, this is inevitable, and the real astonishment, perhaps, lies               in the fact that evil remains as rare as it is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most of you have probably heard by now of Josef Fritzl, an Austrian psychopath who created a custom dungeon under his home, kept his daughter a prisoner there for 24 years, and sired seven children by her. I haven&apos;t been this disturbed by a crime since the boggling case of John Wayne Gacy, right here [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[46],"class_list":["post-382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideasandanalysis","tag-psychology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=382"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":444,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382\/revisions\/444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.contrapositivediary.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}